Commodity prices, conflict, and development
There is no doubt that conflict can lower economic activity by raising insecurity and draining labor and talent out of productive activities and into military/criminal/redistributive activities. Economists have long recognized this possibility and pointed out that the likelihood of conflicts depends, amongst other things, on the relative returns. Ray Fishman over at Slate summarizes a nice recent research paper by economists Oeindrila Dube and Juan Vargas which looks at the relationship between commodity prices and conflict in Colombia. Fishman's post is entitled "Will there be blood? Will falling commodity prices cause civil war?" There are two opposing forces. A few excerpts: ...Poor farmers impoverished by lower crop prices may be eager recruits for rebel groups who can promise a better livelihood from stolen loot than what the soil can provide (not to mention protection from pillaging, since unaligned farmers may be easy prey for either rebels or governm...